Norm Diffusion Asymmetry and Fertility Decline in Middle-Income Countries
Abstract
Why do middle-income countries experience rapid fertility decline without the macroeconomic transformation that standard demographic transition theory predicts? This paper proposes a norm diffusion asymmetry mechanism: institutional hardware (legal protections, childcare infrastructure, housing affordability) diffuses more slowly than cultural software (fertility norms, gender role expectations, life-course scripts). The resulting gap produces a structural mismatch — desired family size converges toward high-income-country norms while the institutional conditions that enable even moderate fertility in those countries remain absent.
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Correspondence: mehmet.sezgin@aile.gov.tr