Research in English
Selected research papers and working papers in English.
Working Papers
Defines the minimum total fertility rate that simultaneously satisfies three demographic constraints: net reproduction (NRR ≥ 1), old-age dependency (OADR ≤ threshold), and population decline rate. Derives a closed-form solution with PPR₁ ≥ 0.70 as the behavioral floor.
Proposes that institutional hardware (legal protections, childcare, housing) travels slower than cultural software (fertility norms), creating an asymmetric diffusion pattern that explains why middle-income countries experience fertility decline without the macroeconomic trigger that Goldin’s model requires.
Contact
For academic correspondence: mehmet.sezgin@aile.gov.tr